Economic Impact Group · Future Impact Model

A project lands
one county over.
The impact doesn’t
stop at the line.

New jobs don’t respect jurisdictions — workers commute, households settle, and the tax base lands somewhere. The Future Impact Model traces that ripple across every county in the region and resolves it into what a council actually asks about: revenue, schools, housing, retail, and net fiscal position.

3,100+ U.S. countiesCensus commuting flows30+ years validated
Scroll
The problem

Most impact studies answer one community at a time — then the neighbouring county asks the same question and the whole study runs again. But the ripple was always regional. The model already routes every worker across every county. We simply stopped hiding it.

How it works

Three layers, one run.

Define the region once. The engine distributes the project’s workforce across it using real commuting flows, then you move freely between the regional picture and any single community inside it.

LAYER 01

Set up the region

Pick the county the project lands in — the model auto-loads its bordering counties as the region, or you add your own. Then the project: jobs, wage, capital investment, ramp.

County · region · project
LAYER 02

Read the region

Regional totals, a live choropleth of the counties, where the new workers actually live, and the winners-and-losers ledger of net fiscal impact by jurisdiction.

Roll-up · map · commute · fiscal
LAYER 03

Drill into a community

Click any county on the map and the full community report opens for it — economy, employment, demographics, housing, and the one-page summary sheet, export-ready.

Report · infographic · PDF
Capabilities

Everything a regional impact study needs.

Flexible enough for a single employer. Deep enough for a county’s balance sheet, its schools, and its housing market.

Regional choropleth

Watch the impact spread across the region

One shape per county, recolored live by the metric you’re arguing. Sequential for growth; diverging for net fiscal, so winners and losers read instantly.

FewestMost

New households — hover a county for its share.

Real county geometry — Hall County, Georgia and its nine neighbours. A further 8% of the workforce commutes in from beyond this region; that impact leaks away.

HALLBANKSBARROWDAWSONFORSYTHGWINNETTHABERSHAMJACKSONLUMPKINWHITE
Commuting flows

Follow the workers home

Census origin–destination data splits the project’s jobs across the region — impacts follow where workers actually live.

OUTSIDE
Net fiscal position

Revenue, net of the cost to serve

County and school revenue set against the real cost of serving the households that arrive — not just the headline gains.

Housing & affordability

Can the market absorb them?

New households against prices, rents and cost burden by income band — whether the local market can house the people the project brings.

64%ABSORBABLE
Retail & sales tax

Where the new spending lands

New household income converts into retail demand by category — and into the local option sales tax that follows it.

Trajectory

Twenty years, discounted to today

Phase the project in over its ramp and read the region’s fiscal position as a net present value — the horizon a board actually decides on.

Deliverables

Council-ready in one click

Save any scenario to your secure workspace, reopen it later, and export every chart and the one-page summary as branded PNG or PDF — in EIG colors or your client’s.

PNGPDF
Under the hood

No black box.

Established regional data, documented method, and a calculation you can walk a skeptic through line by line. It runs live in the browser — so the answer is current every time.

01

A baseline for every U.S. county

Employment, earnings, population and households set the community’s starting point — the counterfactual every impact is measured against.

02

Real commuting flows

Census origin–destination data distributes 100% of the project’s workforce across the region’s counties. No assumption that a job equals a local resident.

03

Census-basis public finance

County and school district revenue and expenditure on a national, consistent basis — with analyst override when local ACFR figures are better.

04

Households, not just jobs

Workers become households, households become residents, students, retail demand and service cost. That chain is where the fiscal answer actually comes from.

05

Forward reference data

Regional projections run to 2060, so a twenty-year horizon rests on published forecasts rather than a flat-line assumption.

06

Validated for three decades

A method refined and stood behind by EIG’s in-house economists for over 30 years — in front of councils, boards and bond markets.

0
U.S. counties
modelled
0+
Years the method
has been validated
0%
Of the workforce
routed by commute
0yr
NPV horizon
on every scenario
Ready when you are

Know what the project does
before the vote.

Set up a region in a few minutes. Run it live. Walk into the meeting with numbers you can defend.